Are EVs Now Practical for Everyone? They Sure are.
alternate titles: Are BEVs Now Practical for Everyone? They Sure are.
Are electric cars Now Practical for Everyone? They Sure are.
Are EVs Now Practical for Everyone? Surely.
Are BEVs Now Practical for Everyone? Surely.
Are electric cars Now Practical for Everyone? Surely.
In the United States of America, mass market battery-electric cars have been in the market since 2011, with the introduction of the $32,780 Nissan LEAF. However, its 73-mile range was impractical for most drivers' weekend travels, such as regional travel, such as excursions to the mountains/recreational areas/state parks or visiting relatives in satellite cities/small near the opposite side of the metropolitan area.
So, in 2012, the Tesla Model S came out, with a 250-mile range. However, its $57,400 price was too steep for most people.
For both cars, in 2012, there were a limited number of fast chargers, so both cars were impractical for driving beyond their range on a full charge.
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This article is to debunk the myth that current electric cars are impractical.
Fast forward to the late 2010s. It is now October 2018. There is now a decent offering of relatively affordable battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the US with a range of 100 miles or more, as well as plenty of fast chargers within metropolitan areas. Such cars are the Nissan LEAF, Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford Focus Electric, Kia Soul EV, Ford Focus Electric, Volkswagen e-Golf, and Chevrolet Bolt. The Tesla Model 3 is excluded from the list because the $35,000 base model is not available yet. Upcoming affordable electric vehicles such as the Hyundai Kona Electric and Kia Niro EV are also excluded.
All prices listed above are the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) before rebates or incentives.
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Most people and the media have always talked about the inflection point being if an electric car can do a cross country trip. However, it's important to note that less than 5% of drivers drive ever do coast-to-coast driving, even once, so their needs are irrelavant to virtually all people. For most drivers of any state, Californians have the longest road trips. So, if there is an affordable EV that can drive from Sacramento to San Diego in a reasonable amount of time, it would meet all needs of most Americans.
This contest determines if there are any electric cars in the USA currently in production that meet all lifetime driving needs of 70% or more of all new car buyers in America.
Fully charging an electric car is much cheaper than fully filling a gasoline car, so, a purchase price of no more than 25% over a gasoline car already makes it cheaper to operate over a 5-year period.
Here are the rules:
1. It must have an effective purchase price, before negotiation but after rebates and tax credits, of, at
most, 15% over the MSRP of the base model of a standard midsize car.
2. It must have an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) range of 100 miles or more.
3. It must be able to seat 5 people or more.
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1. For BEVs, The Federal Tax credit is $7,500, and the California rebate is $2,500. Gasoline cars get not rebates or incentives, so their MSRP is the same as the purchase price and effective purchase price. A standard base model midsize car, such as the Honda Accord or Toyota Camry, has a purchase price of $23,000 before negotiation. Here, I define the purchase price as after state rebates and effective purchase price as after both state rebates and federal tax credits. BEVs that have an effective purchase price before negotiation of no more than 15% over $23,000, which is $26,450, are the Nissan LEAF, Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford Focus Electric, Kia Soul EV, Ford Focus Electric, Volkswagen e-Golf, and Smart Fortwo ED. The Chevrolet Bolt falls short as it still has an effective purchase price before negotiation of $27,495.
2. The Smart Fortwo ED falls short as it has an EPA range of just 58 miles.
3. The Smart Fotwo ED falls short as it can only seat 2 people.
Final Result: The current 2018 BEVs which meet all needs of over 70% of all new car buyers in the USA are the Nissan LEAF, Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford Focus Electric, Kia Soul EV, Ford Focus Electric, and Volkswagen e-Golf.
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The most expensive of the winners above, the 2018 Kia Soul EV, with an MSRP of $33,950, has an effective purchase price of just $23,950. This makes it in the same exact price point as a base 2018 Toyota Camry or Honda Accord. This means that all winners are at the same price as the standard midsize car or even cheaper!
Furthermore, the price of a base model midsize car is the same as a medium-optioned compact car, which means that all winners are actually also competing with even the economy cars like the Honda Civic or the Toyota Corolla!!! This now makes it meeting all needs of 85% of all American new car buyers.
The most expensive of the rest of the winners, the 2017 Volkswagen e-Golf, with an MSRP of $30,495, has an effective purchase price of just $20,495. Besides the Kia Soul EV, this makes all winners competing directly with base Toyota Corollas and Honda Civics!!!!! All needs of 95% of American new car buyers are now met! Surely, the electric car is already practical for almost all people.
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As stated before, most road trips in California are longer that most of those in other states. Within California, the longest expected road trip for a notable amount of people is between Sacramento and San Diego, which is why this was chosen over the route from San Francisco to Los Angeles was not chosen. The road trip between Redding and San Diego was also rejected from evaluation, because the Redding Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a small population. Besides, Redding is socio-economically more Pacific Northwest than California, which means that Reddingites would likely rather travel to Portland, Oregon, which is acutally closer to Redding than Los Angeles is.
The population center farthest away from the San Diego MSA within the Sacramento MSA's urban area is Rocklin. The farthest destination in San Diego MSA's urban area is San Ysidro.
We will use the 2018 Nissan LEAF, as it has the longest EPA range of all winners, which is 151 miles, and competes directly with base compact cars. According to https://autoweek.com/article/car-reviews/long-term-2018-nissan-leaf-discovering-possibilities-and-limitations-leafs-ev, the full-charge range at 70 miles per hour (MPH) is 134.5 miles. Also, at every intermediate stop, except for meals, the driver would recharge to 80%, to save time, as the charge slows down after that. To save even more time, the driver would drive about 135 miles before the first recharge, and 80% of that, which is 108 miles, between each subsequent recharge, except right after a meal. According to https://leccy.net/cars/nissan_leaf, the charge from 1% to 80% using a 50 kilowatt fast charge takes 58 minutes. We will use Google Maps for the distances and travel durations.
Suppose tt's summer vacation.
1. The family starts out at 8:00 am with a fully charged 2018 LEAF at Rocklin, California. He uses California State Route 99 to Southern California instead of Interstate 5, as the 99 passes through many population centers, which means an abundance of fast charging stations.
2. It's 10:01 am, and the family stops at Merced for a fast charge charge after traveling at 70 MPH for 133 miles. In the meantime, they have a brief walking tour around downtown Merced. This makes it debatable whether they've wasted time. At 10:59 am, they depart Merced.
3. It's too bad that there isn't a charging station in Tipton, which is about 110 miles after Merced, so they have to stop earlier at Imhoff neighborhood in Tulare instead, at 12:28 pm, 101 miles after Merced. Since it's around noon, they have to eat anyway, so absolutely no time is wasted in charging. They eat at a sit-down restaurant. Assuming 6% of charge remaining, they finish eating after 1 hour and 15 minutes and leave immediately. They depart at 1:43 pm with a 93% charged car, 126 miles of 70-MPH range.
4. There is not even a highway exit at 126 miles afterwards, so they drive at 55 MPH over Tejon Pass to extend the range. Besides, even if there were a fast charger at that location, it would be pointless to stop, as their next destination is Six Flags Magic Mountain, 140 miles after Tulare. They stop at Magic Mountain at 3:47 pm. Fortunately, there are charging docks, though not fast chargers. However, they would stay in the amusement park for hours anyway, so no time would be wasted on charging. They also have dinner within Magic Mountain. 6 hours later, at 9:47, they leave the theme park with a fully charged car.
5. Less than an hour later, they arrive at their Commerce/Downey/Norwalk/Buena Park/Anaheim motel with continental breakfast that is near charging spots, since this example is comparing electric cars to economy cars like compact cars, which are driven by frugal people. Those cities are chosen because they are the affordable ones in between Universal Studios and Disneyland, both of which tourists to Los Angeles (LA) always visit. They park in the charging spot.
6. They visit the must-do attractions in Greater LA.
7. 3-5 days later, the family leaves the Greater LA motel with a fully charged car.
8. San Ysidro is within 135 miles from the farthest potential lodging away in Commerce, so they drive directly to their San Ysidro motel without stopping.
9. Over the next 2 or more days, in Greater San Diego, they visit SeaWorld, San Diego Zoo, Downtown, and Gaslamp Quarter.
In this otherwise 7 hour and 45 minute, 539-mile non-stop drive, only an extra 0-58 minutes is required in charging the car, depending on how you look at it. This one-way trip shows how feasible cheap BEVs already are for virtually all road trips. The return trip will be discussed later.
Are electric cars Now Practical for Everyone? They Sure are.
Are EVs Now Practical for Everyone? Surely.
Are BEVs Now Practical for Everyone? Surely.
Are electric cars Now Practical for Everyone? Surely.
History
In the United States of America, mass market battery-electric cars have been in the market since 2011, with the introduction of the $32,780 Nissan LEAF. However, its 73-mile range was impractical for most drivers' weekend travels, such as regional travel, such as excursions to the mountains/recreational areas/state parks or visiting relatives in satellite cities/small near the opposite side of the metropolitan area.
So, in 2012, the Tesla Model S came out, with a 250-mile range. However, its $57,400 price was too steep for most people.
For both cars, in 2012, there were a limited number of fast chargers, so both cars were impractical for driving beyond their range on a full charge.
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Current Background
This article is to debunk the myth that current electric cars are impractical.
Fast forward to the late 2010s. It is now October 2018. There is now a decent offering of relatively affordable battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the US with a range of 100 miles or more, as well as plenty of fast chargers within metropolitan areas. Such cars are the Nissan LEAF, Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford Focus Electric, Kia Soul EV, Ford Focus Electric, Volkswagen e-Golf, and Chevrolet Bolt. The Tesla Model 3 is excluded from the list because the $35,000 base model is not available yet. Upcoming affordable electric vehicles such as the Hyundai Kona Electric and Kia Niro EV are also excluded.
All prices listed above are the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) before rebates or incentives.
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Contest Rationale
Most people and the media have always talked about the inflection point being if an electric car can do a cross country trip. However, it's important to note that less than 5% of drivers drive ever do coast-to-coast driving, even once, so their needs are irrelavant to virtually all people. For most drivers of any state, Californians have the longest road trips. So, if there is an affordable EV that can drive from Sacramento to San Diego in a reasonable amount of time, it would meet all needs of most Americans.
This contest determines if there are any electric cars in the USA currently in production that meet all lifetime driving needs of 70% or more of all new car buyers in America.
Fully charging an electric car is much cheaper than fully filling a gasoline car, so, a purchase price of no more than 25% over a gasoline car already makes it cheaper to operate over a 5-year period.
Here are the rules:
1. It must have an effective purchase price, before negotiation but after rebates and tax credits, of, at
most, 15% over the MSRP of the base model of a standard midsize car.
2. It must have an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) range of 100 miles or more.
3. It must be able to seat 5 people or more.
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The Actual Contest
1. For BEVs, The Federal Tax credit is $7,500, and the California rebate is $2,500. Gasoline cars get not rebates or incentives, so their MSRP is the same as the purchase price and effective purchase price. A standard base model midsize car, such as the Honda Accord or Toyota Camry, has a purchase price of $23,000 before negotiation. Here, I define the purchase price as after state rebates and effective purchase price as after both state rebates and federal tax credits. BEVs that have an effective purchase price before negotiation of no more than 15% over $23,000, which is $26,450, are the Nissan LEAF, Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford Focus Electric, Kia Soul EV, Ford Focus Electric, Volkswagen e-Golf, and Smart Fortwo ED. The Chevrolet Bolt falls short as it still has an effective purchase price before negotiation of $27,495.
2. The Smart Fortwo ED falls short as it has an EPA range of just 58 miles.
3. The Smart Fotwo ED falls short as it can only seat 2 people.
Final Result: The current 2018 BEVs which meet all needs of over 70% of all new car buyers in the USA are the Nissan LEAF, Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford Focus Electric, Kia Soul EV, Ford Focus Electric, and Volkswagen e-Golf.
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Further Analysis
The most expensive of the winners above, the 2018 Kia Soul EV, with an MSRP of $33,950, has an effective purchase price of just $23,950. This makes it in the same exact price point as a base 2018 Toyota Camry or Honda Accord. This means that all winners are at the same price as the standard midsize car or even cheaper!
Furthermore, the price of a base model midsize car is the same as a medium-optioned compact car, which means that all winners are actually also competing with even the economy cars like the Honda Civic or the Toyota Corolla!!! This now makes it meeting all needs of 85% of all American new car buyers.
The most expensive of the rest of the winners, the 2017 Volkswagen e-Golf, with an MSRP of $30,495, has an effective purchase price of just $20,495. Besides the Kia Soul EV, this makes all winners competing directly with base Toyota Corollas and Honda Civics!!!!! All needs of 95% of American new car buyers are now met! Surely, the electric car is already practical for almost all people.
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Hypothetical Road Trip
As stated before, most road trips in California are longer that most of those in other states. Within California, the longest expected road trip for a notable amount of people is between Sacramento and San Diego, which is why this was chosen over the route from San Francisco to Los Angeles was not chosen. The road trip between Redding and San Diego was also rejected from evaluation, because the Redding Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a small population. Besides, Redding is socio-economically more Pacific Northwest than California, which means that Reddingites would likely rather travel to Portland, Oregon, which is acutally closer to Redding than Los Angeles is.
The population center farthest away from the San Diego MSA within the Sacramento MSA's urban area is Rocklin. The farthest destination in San Diego MSA's urban area is San Ysidro.
We will use the 2018 Nissan LEAF, as it has the longest EPA range of all winners, which is 151 miles, and competes directly with base compact cars. According to https://autoweek.com/article/car-reviews/long-term-2018-nissan-leaf-discovering-possibilities-and-limitations-leafs-ev, the full-charge range at 70 miles per hour (MPH) is 134.5 miles. Also, at every intermediate stop, except for meals, the driver would recharge to 80%, to save time, as the charge slows down after that. To save even more time, the driver would drive about 135 miles before the first recharge, and 80% of that, which is 108 miles, between each subsequent recharge, except right after a meal. According to https://leccy.net/cars/nissan_leaf, the charge from 1% to 80% using a 50 kilowatt fast charge takes 58 minutes. We will use Google Maps for the distances and travel durations.
Suppose tt's summer vacation.
1. The family starts out at 8:00 am with a fully charged 2018 LEAF at Rocklin, California. He uses California State Route 99 to Southern California instead of Interstate 5, as the 99 passes through many population centers, which means an abundance of fast charging stations.
2. It's 10:01 am, and the family stops at Merced for a fast charge charge after traveling at 70 MPH for 133 miles. In the meantime, they have a brief walking tour around downtown Merced. This makes it debatable whether they've wasted time. At 10:59 am, they depart Merced.
3. It's too bad that there isn't a charging station in Tipton, which is about 110 miles after Merced, so they have to stop earlier at Imhoff neighborhood in Tulare instead, at 12:28 pm, 101 miles after Merced. Since it's around noon, they have to eat anyway, so absolutely no time is wasted in charging. They eat at a sit-down restaurant. Assuming 6% of charge remaining, they finish eating after 1 hour and 15 minutes and leave immediately. They depart at 1:43 pm with a 93% charged car, 126 miles of 70-MPH range.
4. There is not even a highway exit at 126 miles afterwards, so they drive at 55 MPH over Tejon Pass to extend the range. Besides, even if there were a fast charger at that location, it would be pointless to stop, as their next destination is Six Flags Magic Mountain, 140 miles after Tulare. They stop at Magic Mountain at 3:47 pm. Fortunately, there are charging docks, though not fast chargers. However, they would stay in the amusement park for hours anyway, so no time would be wasted on charging. They also have dinner within Magic Mountain. 6 hours later, at 9:47, they leave the theme park with a fully charged car.
5. Less than an hour later, they arrive at their Commerce/Downey/Norwalk/Buena Park/Anaheim motel with continental breakfast that is near charging spots, since this example is comparing electric cars to economy cars like compact cars, which are driven by frugal people. Those cities are chosen because they are the affordable ones in between Universal Studios and Disneyland, both of which tourists to Los Angeles (LA) always visit. They park in the charging spot.
6. They visit the must-do attractions in Greater LA.
7. 3-5 days later, the family leaves the Greater LA motel with a fully charged car.
8. San Ysidro is within 135 miles from the farthest potential lodging away in Commerce, so they drive directly to their San Ysidro motel without stopping.
9. Over the next 2 or more days, in Greater San Diego, they visit SeaWorld, San Diego Zoo, Downtown, and Gaslamp Quarter.
In this otherwise 7 hour and 45 minute, 539-mile non-stop drive, only an extra 0-58 minutes is required in charging the car, depending on how you look at it. This one-way trip shows how feasible cheap BEVs already are for virtually all road trips. The return trip will be discussed later.
Vehicles powered by internal combustion engines can only be refueled at dedicated service stations, but electric ones (with batteries) can be opportunistically charged when parked, and along with that can be charged at the owner's home. So if an B.E.V doesn't need to go far before it is parked, it doesn't need batteries that big.
ReplyDeleteIf the battery range is enough for weekly commutes but not enough for weekend travels, then a range extender could generate electricity for on-board use on such trips. This could be onboard the car itself or could be a gen-set trailer.